Predicting electoral results, finding out which issues the voters care about, which ads work the best for which segmented groups of voters, and which neighbourhoods and streets the campaign should target.


  • Political parties, either for running digital campaigns or for getting information on voter segments and key issues based on prediction polling
  • Media outlets that order election polls

Precision in electoral predictions

For the Brexit referendum we estimated that Leave would get 51.3% (the actual outcome was 51.9%). For the US election we got 47 out of 50 states right (including all the major swing states: PA, FL, OH, NC) and we predicted that Clinton would get more votes but still lose the electoral college vote. The precision for the swing states was within a single percentage point margin of error.

See more here.


  • The BASON Survey is used to find out which issues the voters care about (e.g. immigration, taxation, security, etc.), which ads work the best for which segmented groups of voters, and which geographic locations (neighbourhoods and streets) the canvassing campaign should target
  • We are able to generate issue- and location-specific targeted messages and creatives (ads) that can be used to increase voter turnout and to increase probability of voting for the client
  • The method guarantees the best possible prediction of voter preferences (see Box), therefore giving a very accurate estimate of where the candidate stands several months before the election. This information is then used to update the campaign strategy and ‘pick fights’ carefully
  • The BASON prediction survey asks voters to predict how much each party will get in the elections, and who other people think will win. This information is then updated by using social network analysis of voter preferences to remove groupthink bias
  • The method also enables us to find out which party the voters think is better at solving a given issue and to recognize the key battleground and stronghold regions or neighbourhoods which the campaign should be targeting
  • Using data science and our software solutions we can measure real-time impact of campaign moves and how voters respond to key messages during the campaign